Large Language Models Slow Coder Employment Growth

Leland D. Crane and Paul E. Soto (March 2026) analyze whether large language models have affected coder employment using O*NET linked to CPS data. They find aggregate coder employment growth sharply decelerated after ChatGPT's introduction and show, using a novel industry-level control variable, that the slowdown reflects an occupation-specific shock rather than industry composition effects. Coder employment continues to grow but much more slowly than pre-2022.