India Projects 7 Percent Growth Trend

India's Economic Survey forecasts FY26 GDP growth at 7.4% and raises India's long-run trend to about 7%, citing rising total factor productivity from 1.7 to 1.9. It warns that unconditional pre-election cash freebies threaten fiscal stability and advocates conditional cash transfers, while outlining three global 2026 scenarios including a 10–20% risk of an AI-triggered financial crisis. The Survey says India is relatively well positioned but must strengthen shock-absorption and credibility.