Analysisai investmentmacroeconomicsmrb partnersdata centers
Economists Reassess AI's Contribution To GDP
7.2
MRB Partners strategist Prajakta Bhide reported in January 2026 that U.S. consumer spending, not AI, was the primary driver of GDP growth through the first three quarters of 2025. She found AI-related capital expenditures added about 90 basis points unadjusted, but only 40–50 basis points after adjusting for imported equipment, reducing AI's net headline contribution. The finding tempers claims that AI capex alone sustained the economy.
Key Points
- 1Finds consumption drove U.S. GDP growth in early 2025; AI capex was the second-largest contributor.
- 2Adjusting for imports cuts AI's net GDP contribution to 40–50 basis points, lowering headline impact.
- 3Implies policymakers and analysts should weigh consumption resilience alongside AI investments for growth forecasts.
Scoring Rationale
Challenges AI-centric growth narrative with firm data, but relies on single-source estimates and headline-adjusted import assumptions.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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