Analysisai economicsmacroeconomicsconsumer spendingtech imports
MRB Partners Finds AI Not Driving GDP
7.1
Macro Research Board (MRB) Partners published a January report finding that AI was a secondary, not primary, driver of 2025 US GDP, with personal consumption remaining the main pillar and data-center contributions negligible. Economist Prajakta Bhide says heavy imports of high-tech equipment reduce AI's net GDP impact, and although an AI optimism shock could dent markets, consumer spending still underpins economic resilience.
Key Points
- 1Finds personal consumption led 2025 GDP; AI contributed mainly via software, not data centers.
- 2Explains imports of high-tech equipment shrink AI's net GDP contribution, lowering systemic economic risk.
- 3Warns a negative AI optimism shock could dent growth and markets, but recession risk tied to jobs.
Scoring Rationale
Provides meaningful revision to AI's GDP role with concrete trade/imports analysis, but relies on a single research firm's report.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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