Analysisai investmentmoney supplymarket bubbles
Steve Hanke Warns Of U.S. Recession
6.0
In late 2025, Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke warns that persistent inflation, contracting M2 money supply and overvalued markets could precipitate a hard landing for the U.S. economy by early 2026. He cites M2 growth below his 6% "Golden Growth Rate", elevated price-to-earnings ratios and tariff risks, arguing these signals raise recession and stagflation probabilities.
Key Points
- 1Identifies ongoing M2 contraction since July 2022 and M2 growth below 6% Golden Growth Rate
- 2Argues Fed policy delays and asset-price excesses have embedded inflation and created a market 'bubble' risk
- 3Recommends practitioners reassess tech-heavy exposure, plan for stagflation, and prepare for liquidity shocks
Scoring Rationale
Credible macro analysis with quantitative signals, but limited by reliance on a single economist's outlook and interpretation.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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