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S&P Global Predicts Korea Growth Rebounds In 2026
7.0
S&P Global Ratings and Nice Credit said Wednesday that South Korea will face tight credit conditions in 2026 but that GDP growth should recover from 1.1% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, driven by a rebound in semiconductor exports and expansionary fiscal policy. They forecast industry revenue rising about 5% to 1,642 trillion won, while noting uneven sector performance and delayed rate cuts.
Key Points
- 1Forecasts show GDP growth rising to 2.3% in 2026 from 1.1% in 2025.
- 2Semiconductor and shipbuilding momentum plus fiscal stimulus drive recovery despite tariff headwinds.
- 3Delayed Bank of Korea rate cuts likely until H2 2026 affecting FX and capital flows.
Scoring Rationale
Solid official forecasts and sector-level signals justify a high impact, limited by modest novelty and national scope.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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