Analysisbacktestingseasonal patternstrading strategies
Presidents' Day Shows No Market Holiday Edge
6.9
U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Presidents' Day (Washington's Birthday), with NYSE and Nasdaq closed on Presidents Day in 2026 and trading resuming the next day. Backtests of two strategies—entering Thursday-to-Friday and Friday-to-Tuesday around the holiday—returned average losses of 0.15% and 0.3% per trade (48% post-holiday win rate), indicating no consistent holiday trading advantage.
Key Points
- 1Finds no holiday trading edge; pre-holiday strategy averaged -0.15% per trade.
- 2Shows post-holiday performance weak: average -0.3% return and 48% win rate.
- 3Indicates reduced liquidity and no statistical edge; traders should avoid holiday timing bets.
Scoring Rationale
Broad, directly actionable market backtests support findings, but single-source methodology and limited robustness checks constrain confidence.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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