Researchtechnosignaturessetidrake equation
Physicists Estimate Civilizations Last Five Thousand Years
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A team of physicists at Sharif University of Technology (Sohrab Rahvar and Shahin Rouhani) posted a preprint on arXiv estimating technologically advanced civilizations in the Milky Way last roughly 5,000 years. Using the Drake equation and the ~100,000-year electromagnetic reach of modern radio telescopes, they argue short lifespans explain the Fermi Paradox and list extinction risks like asteroid impacts, climate change, pandemics, nuclear war, and AI.
Scoring Rationale
Offers a provocative arXiv estimate with clear Fermi implications, but preprint status and niche scope limit impact.
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