Physicists Estimate Civilizations Last Five Thousand Years
A team of physicists at Sharif University of Technology (Sohrab Rahvar and Shahin Rouhani) posted a preprint on arXiv estimating technologically advanced civilizations in the Milky Way last roughly 5,000 years. Using the Drake equation and the ~100,000-year electromagnetic reach of modern radio telescopes, they argue short lifespans explain the Fermi Paradox and list extinction risks like asteroid impacts, climate change, pandemics, nuclear war, and AI.
Key Points
- 1Estimate that advanced civilizations persist about 5,000 years based on Drake-equation and detection-window analysis
- 2Highlight that current radio reach (~100,000 years) should reveal any long-lived civilizations
- 3Imply urgency to study extinction risks and diversify technosignature searches beyond radio
Scoring Rationale
Offers a provocative arXiv estimate with clear Fermi implications, but preprint status and niche scope limit impact.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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