Analysishousing marketmortgage ratesredfinaffordability
Housing Market Begins Gradual Recovery In 2026
7.0
Redfin predicts the U.S. housing market will begin a long, slow recovery in 2026 as wages rise faster than home prices and mortgage rates ease slightly. It forecasts a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.3%, median home-price growth of about 1%, existing-home sales rising 3%, and rents up roughly 2–3%, yielding modest affordability improvements and policy responses.
Key Points
- 1Predicts mortgage rates average 6.3% and median home prices rise only 1% in 2026
- 2Explains affordability improves because wages grow faster than home prices for a sustained period
- 3Advises real-estate practitioners that modest affordability gains should lift sales 3% and reshape demand
Scoring Rationale
Data-driven national forecasts offer actionable market signals, but rely on a single firm's assumptions and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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