Alphabet Nears $5 Trillion, May Overtake Nvidia

CNBC reports that shares of Alphabet rose 10% on Thursday, bringing its one-year gain to 140% and lifting its market capitalization to over $4.6 trillion. CNBC reports that Alphabet posted revenue that beat analyst estimates and that Google Cloud revenue surpassed $20 billion. CNBC reports Nvidia traded with a market cap under $4.9 trillion and fell more than 6% in two days after a Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed internal revenue and growth estimates. CNBC cites ThinkOrSwim options data showing about a 53% chance Alphabet's shares could touch roughly $401 per share by May 15 and about a 30% chance of closing above $400 on May 22.

Options-implied probabilities, as reported by CNBC using ThinkOrSwim data, reflect short-term market expectations and do not equal guaranteed outcomes. For quantitative practitioners, the reported 53% and 30% figures are conditional path probabilities derived from option premiums and incorporate current volatility, time-to-expiry, and skew. Industry observers frequently use these market-implied metrics as high-frequency indicators of sentiment rather than as definitive forecasts.

Market-cap leadership among the so-called Mag 7 is partly a reflection of investor preference cycles between cloud/software platforms and semiconductor suppliers that power AI workloads. CNBC notes Alphabet last held the top spot in 2016, when it briefly surpassed Apple. Shifts of this magnitude change where attention and investor capital flow across platform providers and infrastructure vendors.

CNBC highlights Nvidia's upcoming earnings on May 20 as a key near-term catalyst and points to options flow as an indicator of investor conviction. Observers should watch reported earnings, guidance, and any market reactions to confirm whether the options-implied paths materialize. Reporting by the Wall Street Journal about OpenAI's internal metrics is already cited in market moves, so further coverage of partner performance and cloud demand will be relevant.