Researchers Predict 12-Month Cognitive and Functional Decline

In Communications Medicine (2026), researchers developed and validated ElasticNet models predicting 12-month MMSE and BADL scores using routine clinical assessments from the UK Minder study and external ADNI data. The cognitive model achieved MAE 1.84 (R² 0.74) and validated on 741 ADNI trajectories with MAE 2.19; the functional model achieved MAE 3.88 (R² 0.77). A clinician tool, Theia, provides SHAP explanations for deployment.