Researchllmlookahead biasfinancial forecastingtraining data detection
Researchers Develop Test Detecting Lookahead Bias in Forecasts
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8.0
Researchers present a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models in a paper submitted Dec. 29, 2025. They estimate a Lookahead Propensity (LAP) score using pre-training data detection techniques and show that a positive correlation between LAP and forecast accuracy quantifies lookahead bias. The test is applied to headline-based stock-return and earnings-call capex forecasts and offered as a cost-efficient diagnostic tool.
Scoring Rationale
Novel and actionable diagnostic scoring high on relevance, limited by single preprint evaluation and narrower economic forecasting scope.
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