Raymond Chen Labels Copilot Forecasts a 'Hockey Stick on Wheels'

The Register published an item citing veteran Microsoft engineer Raymond Chen, who wrote on Microsoft's developer blog that the finance division uses the phrase "the hockey stick on wheels" to describe forecasts that are repeatedly deferred. Chen is quoted: "They come back the next year with their revised forecasts, and they are the same as last year's forecast, just delayed one year." The Register reports Chen used a sales-forecast chart for Copilot to illustrate the pattern.

Industry observers often use the "hockey stick" metaphor to describe growth curves that project rapid future expansion after a flat period. Companies and consultants commonly present such curves in investor decks and internal plans; observers have long noted a pattern where optimistic growth projections are revised forward rather than materially reset. For practitioners, that pattern highlights why reproducible metrics and transparent cohort analyses matter when assessing product traction and model-enabled features.

Public reporting frames Chen's post as a wry culture note about forecasting practices rather than a statement about product performance. The Register places the anecdote in a broader pattern familiar to investors in AI and SaaS: optimistic timelines for profitability and user ramp frequently appear in forecasts and are often revised rather than realized.

For practitioners and investors monitoring AI product rollouts, useful indicators include consistent cohort retention, month-over-month active usage, and unit economics tied to Copilot-style features. Observers should compare stated forecasts against realized metrics in quarterly reports and seek cohort-level disclosures where available.