PFF Model Predicts Receiver Targets For Super Bowl
An analyst at Pro Football Focus (PFF) applies an XGBoost model and route-level data to produce Share of Predicted Targets and Predicted Air Yards, showing these metrics are more stable than actual target measures. Using conference-championship data (e.g., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Davante Adams) the piece identifies under-targeted breakout candidates (A.J. Barner, Hunter Henry) and highlights Drake Maye's leading 2025 EPA capture rate, informing playcalling and matchup evaluation.
Key Points
- 1Introduces XGBoost-derived Share of Predicted Targets and Air Yards, showing more stability than actual metrics
- 2Identifies players (Smith-Njigba, Barner, Henry) under-targeted despite being open, indicating hidden receiving value
- 3Enables practitioners to target breakout candidates and optimize playcalling using predicted target share metrics
Scoring Rationale
Strong ML-backed analytics and actionable player signals drive score; limited novelty and niche sports focus constrain broader impact.
Sources
Public references used for this report.
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